I. International Updates: Thailand Intervenes in Prices, Africa’s Supply Rises
Thailand launches rubber price stabilization measures: The Rubber Authority of Thailand announced on May 20 that it will allocate 5 billion Thai baht (approximately $140 million) for a new round of rubber price intervention, supporting market prices through direct raw material purchases and subsidies to rubber farmers. Current cup lump prices remain at 48 baht/kg, with latex at 84 baht/kg. The authority aims to stabilize cup lump prices above 55 baht/kg.
Africa’s export share continues to expand: According to the latest ANRPC data, African countries’ share of global natural rubber exports rose to 19.3% in 2025, up nearly 8 percentage points from 2020. Côte d’Ivoire remains Africa’s largest rubber-producing country, with output exceeding 1.6 million tons in 2025. Analysts believe Africa, with its yield advantages from younger rubber trees, is gradually reshaping global natural rubber supply patterns.
II. Corporate News: Bridgestone Advances Recycling, Hankook Expands in Indonesia
Bridgestone achieves chemical recycling breakthrough: Bridgestone announced on May 19 that its chemical recycling technology, developed in partnership with Japanese chemical company Eneos Materials, has achieved a major breakthrough, successfully recovering butadiene from end-of-life tires at a purity rate of 85%. The technology is expected to be commercialized by 2027, with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons of scrap tires.
Hankook’s new Indonesian plant commences production: Hankook Tire’s new factory in Cilegon, Indonesia, officially began production on May 18, with an initial annual capacity of 5 million passenger car tires, primarily supplying the U.S. and Southeast Asian markets. The $1.1 billion project represents Hankook’s seventh global production base.
III. Futures Market: Main Contracts Trade in Narrow Range
As of the close on May 22, the main natural rubber futures contract on the domestic exchange stood at 17,480 RMB/ton, up 0.2% from the previous day, with a weekly decline of 1.8%. Open interest decreased by 23,000 lots to 386,000 lots, indicating some capital choosing to wait on the sidelines.
The TSR20 main contract closed at 14,850 RMB/ton, down 2.1% for the week. The TSR20 near-month contract on the Singapore Exchange was quoted at 182.5 US cents/kg, down 1.6% for the week.
Trading activity was subdued, primarily suppressed by expectations of increased supply during the tapping season, coupled with weak purchasing sentiment from downstream tire companies who are mainly replenishing as needed.
IV. Downstream Observation: Heavy Truck Sales Rebound, Semi-Steel Tire Exports Remain Strong
April heavy truck sales show monthly increase: Domestic heavy truck sales reached approximately 82,000 units in April, up 11% month-on-month but down 5% year-on-year. While still showing a slight year-on-year decline, the significant monthly improvement indicates a gradual recovery in logistics transportation demand, supporting all-steel tire demand.
Semi-steel tire exports maintain high levels: China’s semi-steel tire exports reached approximately 650,000 tons in the first quarter, up 12.3% year-on-year, with major destinations including Europe, the Middle East, and North America. Strong overseas orders support semi-steel tire operating rates above 75%.
V. Institutional Views
CITIC Futures: In the short term, rubber prices lack a clear directional trend. Seasonal supply increases cap upside potential, while downside is supported by raw material costs and inventory drawdowns. A range-bound oscillation between 17,000-18,000 RMB/ton is expected.
GTJA Futures: Over the medium to long term, the global natural rubber production capacity cycle has reached an inflection point. A production decline cycle is expected from 2026 to 2028, with price centers of gravity gradually moving upward. Pullbacks present buying opportunities.
Post time: May-22-2026